Nearly every nation in the world has agreed to transition away from fossil fuels, the main driver of climate change. The following article was published in the January-February 2024 issue of NewsNotes.
The world’s nations came together at the 28th U.N. Climate Change Conference in Dubai – COP 28 – to forge a historic deal committing to transition away from fossil fuels. Although fossil fuels have long been acknowledged as the root cause of climate change, they had never been called out at previous summits. For some, this moment marked the beginning of the end of climate change. For others, the deal was far too tepid and a call for accelerated action rather than celebration.
The agreement was forged in the wee hours of the summit’s final night and triumphantly announced by COP 28 President Sultan Al-Jaber, who also happens to be the chief executive of the UAE’s state oil company. While many global voices denounced his appointment to lead the climate summit, others signaled that he was poised to have a unique voice among oil producing countries, who are also members of the UN Framework on Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC). History will determine if he did indeed captain the ship back onto course or not.
The crowning achievement of COP 28 was the Global Stocktake (GST) an inventory of how the world stands in regard to keeping global temperature rise to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7F) above pre-industrial levels, a target set in the 2015 Paris Agreement. Actions taken by governments since 2015 have brought drown the trajectory of climate warming, but not by enough.
Earlier in 2023, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change determined that the planet is on course for a 2.4C temperature rise that, if unchecked, will lead to catastrophic events. The concluding text of the GST calls on nations to forge new and bolder commitments to stay under the 1.5C threshold.
The overarching call to transition away from fossil fuels did not come easily. Although over 130 countries arrived in Dubai with a commitment to phaseout of fossil fuels, the block of OPEC oil-producing nations spent most of the two weeks blocking the deal. Whether it was the unflappable determination of climate activists, the leadership of small island states, the diplomatic maneuverings of middle ground countries like the United States or the inside gaming skills of Sultan Al-Jaber that achieved the final commitment might never be known. And while the term “transition from” (fossil fuels) was not as strong as the term “phaseout” desired by many, it was what carried the deal over the finish line.
While most took a pause to acknowledge the historic moment, some were quick to point out loopholes in the agreement. One loophole is the nod to the use of “transition fuels” such as liquified natural gas (LNG). When the extraction, refining and shipping of this fuel is factored in, LNG is actually just as destructive to the planet as other traditional fossil fuels.
Another vehement concern was the double speak of developed countries who simultaneously committed to transition away from fossil fuels while carrying out large new fossil fuel projects. One striking example is the U.S. plan to construct twenty new LGN export facilities that would add the equivalent emissions of 675 coal-fired power plants.
COP 28 began in upbeat fashion, when on the first day countries unanimously agreed to a plan to operationalize the new Loss and Damage Fund. This fund, directed at providing financial help to vulnerable communities pulverized by climate-change-caused catastrophes, was extremely controversial up until two years ago. But a decade of tireless advocacy from the Global South led to a decision at COP27 to explore the process. A Transitional Committee was named and met throughout 2023 to make a recommendation on the institutional arrangements for the fund. The result was perfect for no one, but agreeable to all, and thus COP got off to on a positive footing. Although commitments to fill the fund came pouring in from the time of its announcement, a gap still remains to reach what is truly needed.
The final agreement also contained important global commitments to triple renewable energy and double energy efficiency. In addition, the transportation sector, which makes up 30% of U.S. emissions, was addressed for the first time. Likewise, food systems, the source of another third of U.S. emissions, were named for the first time as an area to be addressed. Forests, biodiversity, and ecosystems were included in a much more integral way and the global 30x30 pledge to preserve 30 percent of land and water by the year 2030 was affirmed.
The work for climate action and justice will go on and nations agreed to meet again next year for COP29 in Azerbaijan.
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Photo of people protesting fossil fuels at COP28 by Lisa Sullivan.